David Eiser, Senior Consultant at Gen Consulting, explores the economic growth which has characterised the first five years of the Clyde Waterfront Regeneration Initiative.
The Clyde Waterfront Regeneration Initiative is a 25-year
programme to transform the Clyde into a new vibrant location. The
Initiative was established in recognition of the potential that the
Clyde Waterfront has to act as an engine for economic growth across
the whole of the city-region. We recently carried out a
detailed evaluation to assess what progress has been made towards
the vision during the first five years of the initiative
(2003-2008).
A buoyant private sector
In recent years the Clyde Waterfront economy has diversified and
strengthened significantly. Between 2003 and 2008 over 250,000 sq m
of commercial floorspace was developed in the Clyde Waterfront.
This has accommodated employment growth of 17,000 new jobs. This
rate of employment growth is significantly higher than the rate of
employment growth in Glasgow, and across Scotland as a whole during
the same period.
A large part of Clyde Waterfront's jobs growth has come from the
banking and finance sector, which expanded significantly over the
period to 2008, accounting for over one third of the area's job
growth. Manufacturing employment in the Clyde Waterfront also grew,
at a time when manufacturing jobs were generally in decline across
Scotland.
The strong jobs growth demonstrates that the Clyde Waterfront
area is living up to its billing as a key driver for economic
growth across the West of Scotland. This is especially the case
given that a large part of the employment expansion has come from
the private sector, at a time when large parts of the rest of
Scotland have been reliant on the public sector as a source of job
growth.
But Clyde Waterfront has not just been growing in employment
terms. Almost 6,000 residential units were completed between
2003-8. As a result, the working age population in Clyde Waterfront
has grown at almost double the rate of the working age population
in the rest of Scotland, reversing the longer term trend of
employment decline that some parts of the Clyde have experienced in
recent decades.
The estimated value of private sector investment associated with
the completed Clyde Waterfront developments between 2003-8 is £1.1
billion. Investment of around £360m by public sector partners to
remediate sites and create the necessary infrastructure and public
realm has played an important role in creating the catalyst for
this private investment to happen.
City centre growth
Although economic growth is evident throughout the Clyde
Waterfront area, some parts have performed more strongly than
others. Glasgow City Centre accounts for around 60% of the new jobs
created, while Pacific Quay accounts for around 25%. Employment
growth in outlying areas of the Clyde Waterfront has been less
substantial, but still important in the context of the local
economies. The areas closest to Glasgow city centre have also
performed strongest in terms of population growth, reflecting a
nationally observed resurgence in city living.
Local people have benefited, with unemployment rates falling in
all areas of the Clyde Waterfront between 2003-8. However,
unemployment rates have not, on the whole, fallen more quickly in
the Clyde Waterfront than they have across the whole city-region.
This suggests that, although the Clyde Waterfront has punched
significantly above its weight in accommodating new jobs growth,
local residents are arguably not benefiting to the extent that they
might.
New times: new challenges
The Clyde Waterfront Regeneration Initiative was established in
2003, in recognition of the role that the area could play as one of
the 'engines' of growth for the West of Scotland. The first five
years of the Initiative have been a real success - with targeted
investments by the public sector partners acting as the catalyst
for significant job and population growth in the area. In this
respect, the Clyde Waterfront is living up to its expectation as a
major engine of regional growth, and is well on the way to
achieving its 25-year vision of becoming a new, vibrant
location.
We are now entering what is likely to be a much more difficult
phase. Since the beginning of the recession in the last quarter of
2008, rates of development in the Clyde Waterfront have slowed, as
they have elsewhere, and some high-profile development sites have
hit the buffers. Across the UK, unemployment has increased rapidly,
undoing many of the gains made since the late 1990s.
Clyde Waterfront is not immune from these wider trends. But
Clyde Waterfront can continue to act as an engine and a catalyst
for future growth. The Clyde Waterfront partners remain committed
to the regeneration of the Waterfront, and are putting in place
measures to ensure that future waterfront activity contributes to
the overall vision once the market upturn begins.
Ongoing investment in infrastructure - including the recently
opened Broomielaw -Tradeston Footbridge - continuing work to
improve the waterfront's greenspace and public realm, and efforts
to improve access to the waterfront for pedestrians and water users
all contribute to the ongoing progress towards Clyde Waterfront's
25-year vision. The foundations have been laid for the Clyde
Waterfront to continue to act as the key focus and engine for
city-regional growth for years to come.
David Eiser
Gen
Consulting
15th October 2009
